“Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I hope to enrich the vocabulary that people use when they talk about the judgments and choices of others, the company’s new policies, or a colleague’s investment decisions. Why be concerned with gossip?
Because it is much easier, as well as far more enjoyable, to identify and label the mistakes of others than to recognize our own. Questioning what we believe and want is difficult at the best of times, and especially difficult when we most need to do it, but we can benefit from the informed opinions of others. Many of us spontaneously anticipate how friends and colleagues will evaluate our choices; the quality and content of these anticipated judgments therefore matters.
The expectation of intelligent gossip is a powerful motive for serious self-criticism, more powerful than New Year resolutions to improve one’s decision making at work and at home.
To be a good diagnostician, a physician needs to acquire a large set of labels for diseases, each of which binds an idea of the illness and its symptoms, possible antecedents and causes, possible developments and consequences, and possible interventions to cure or mitigate the illness.
Learning medicine consists in part of learning the language of medicine. A deeper understanding of judgments and choices also requires a richer vocabulary than is available in everyday language. The hope for informed gossip is that there are distinctive patterns in the errors people make. Systematic errors are known as biases, and they recur predictably in particular circumstances.
When the handsome and confident speaker bounds onto the stage, for example, you can anticipate that the audience will judge his comments more favorably than he deserves. The availability of a diagnostic label for this bias—the halo effect—makes it easier to anticipate, recognize, and understand.
When you are asked what you are thinking about, you can normally answer. You believe you know what goes on in your mind, which often consists of one conscious thought leading in an orderly way to another. But that is not the only way the mind works, nor indeed is that the typical way. Most impressions and thoughts arise in your conscious experience without your knowing how they got there.
You cannot trace how you came to the belief that there is a lamp on the desk in front of you, or how you detected a hint of irritation in your spouse’s voice on the telephone, or how you managed to avoid a threat on the road before you became consciously aware of it. The mental work that produces impressions, intuitions, and many decisions goes on in silence in our mind.
Much of the discussion in this book is about biases of intuition. However, the focus on error does not denigrate human intelligence, any more than the attention to diseases in medical texts denies good health. Most of us are healthy most of the time, and most of our judgments and actions are appropriate most of the time. As we navigate our lives, we normally allow ourselves to be guided by impressions and feelings, and the confidence we have in our intuitive beliefs and preferences is usually justified. But not always. We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.
So this is my aim for watercooler conversations: improve the ability to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice, in others and eventually in ourselves, by providing a richer and more precise language to discuss them. In at least some cases, an accurate diagnosis may suggest an intervention to limit the damage that bad judgments and choices often cause.”
PART I. TWO SYSTEMS
1 . THE CHARACTERS OF THE STORY
2. ATTENTION AND EFFORT
3. THE LAZY CONTROLLER
4. THE ASSOCIATIVE MACHINE
5. COGNITIVE EASE
6. NORMS. SURPRISES. AND CAUSES
7. A MACHINE FOR JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS
8. HOW JUDGMENTS HAPPEN
9. ANSWERING AN EASIER QUESTION
PART II. HEURISTICS AND BIASES
10. THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS
1 1 . ANCHORS
1 2. THE SCIENCE OF AVAILABILITY
13. AVAILABILITY. EMOTION. AND RISK
14. TOM WS SPECIALTY
15. LINDA: LESS IS MORE
16. CAUSES TRUMP STATISTICS
17. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN
18. TAMING INTUITIVE PREDICTIONS
PART III. OVERCONFIDENCE
19. THE ILLUSION OF UNDERSTANDING
20. THE ILLUSION OF VALIDITY
21. INTUITIONS VS. FORMULAS
22. EXPERT INTUITION: WHEN CAN WE TRUST
23. THE OUTSIDE VIEW
24. THE ENGINE OF CAPITALISM
PART IV. CHOICES
25. BERNOULLI’S ERRORS
26. PROSPECT THEORY
27. THE ENDOWMENT EFFECT
28. BAD EVENTS
29. THE FOURFOLD PATTERN
30. RARE EVENTS
31. RISK POLICIES
32. KEEPING SCORE
34. FRAMES AND REALITY
PART V. TWO SELVES
35. TWO SELVES
36. LIFE AS A STORY
37. EXPERIENCED WELL-BEING
38. THINKING ABOUT LIFE CONCLUSIONS